4 of 5 methods see output above capacity (median +0.3%).
Quarterly phaseExpansion Gap +0.3% · rising
Method consensus4 of 5 methods see output above capacity · median +0.3%
Colombia macroeconomic monitordata as of 9 Oct 2026 · page updated 9 Oct 2026, 16:48
How is Colombia's economy doing?
The economy is growing faster than its usual pace (3.5% over the past year). Inflation (6.2%) is rising and well above the 3% target. Banco de la República's policy rate is 12.25%, a level that aims to curb inflation by making credit more expensive.
GrowthAbove usual pace
3.5%
Real GDP, y/y · Q2 2026
Usual pace: 2.4%
Usual pace: 2.4%
InflationHigh
6.24%
Annual change in prices · Aug 2026
A year ago: 5.1% · target 3%
A year ago: 5.1% · target 3%
Policy rateHigh: slows the economy
12.25%
Benchmark interest rate
A year ago: 9.25%
A year ago: 9.25%
UnemploymentWorsening
9.7%
Unemployment rate · Aug 2026
A year ago: 8.9%
A year ago: 8.9%
US dollarStronger peso
$3,219
Pesos per dollar (TRM) · 9 Oct 2026
Over a year: -17.0%
Over a year: -17.0%
Stocks (COLCAP)Rising
2,526 pts
Colombian stock index · 8 Oct 2026
Over a year: +34.7%
Over a year: +34.7%
Sources: DANE · Banco de la República · BVC/MSCILabels describe each figure against explicit rules (inflation target, usual growth pace). They are not investment advice.
01
At a glance
Each topic in one sentence, with its two key figures. Open the analysis for charts and detail.
Open analysis
Output (GDP) grew 3.5% in the year to Q2 2026.
Real GDP, y/y3.5%▲ +1.6 pp over 12 months · Q2 2026
Monthly activity (ISE)1.1%▼ -3.7 pp over 12 months · Jul 2026
In Q2 2026 the economy produced +0.3% relative to its estimated capacity: it is above, with no slack, which tends to push prices up.
Output gap+0.3% median of 5 methods · range -0.5% to +2.3%
Labour underutilisation20.1% of the extended labour force (12 months) · a year ago 21.3%
In Q2 2026 the fastest-growing sectors were Government, education and health (10.0%) and Arts, households and other (9.5%).
Fastest-growing sector+10.0%Government, education and health y/y · Q2 2026
Weakest sector-2.1%Farming and fishing y/y · Q2 2026
The unemployment rate was 9.7% in Aug 2026 (a year earlier: 8.9%).
Unemployment9.7%▲ +0.7 pp over 12 months · Aug 2026
Informality54.6%▼ -0.4 pp over 12 months · Jul 2026
Prices rose 6.24% over the past year (data for Aug 2026); a year ago inflation was 5.1%.
Inflation, y/y6.24%▲ +1.1 pp over 12 months · Aug 2026
Underlying inflation6.12%▲ +1.3 pp over 12 months · Aug 2026
The central bank's policy rate is 12.25%.
Policy rate12.25%▲ +3.0 pp over 12 months · 9 Oct 2026
Real rate (ex ante)4.7%neutral ≈ 2.7%–3.2%
On 2 Oct 2026, a 1-year government bond yields 12.44% and a 10-year bond 13.30%.
10-year TES13.30%▲ +1.6 pp over 3 months · 2 Oct 2026
Slope 10y − 1y+0.86 pp▼ -1.70 pp over 12 months · 2 Oct 2026
One dollar costs $3,219 pesos (-17.0% over a year).
US dollar (TRM)$3,219▼ -17.0% over 12 months · 9 Oct 2026
Real exchange rate (ITCR)95.7 2010 = 100 · average since 2000: 126.6
The Colombian stock index (COLCAP) moved +34.7% over the last twelve months.
COLCAP2,526 pts▲ +34.7% over 12 months · 8 Oct 2026
Profits of the 10,000 largest$131.7 COP trillion · +13.4% vs 2024
The country spends more abroad than it earns: the current-account deficit was 3.5% of GDP in Q2 2026.
Current account-3.5% GDP▼ -1.1 pp over 12 months · Q2 2026
Government debt62.9% GDP▲ +5.0 pp over 12 months · 2025
Over the last 12 months (to Jul 2026) Colombia exported US$53.8 bn and imported US$77.6 bn: a trade deficit of US$23.7 bn.
Exports, 12 monthsUS$53.8 bn+8.2% y/y · Jul 2026
Trade balance, 12 monthsUS$-23.7 bn Jul 2026
02
All indicators
Each row shows the latest value, how much it changed and whether it is high or low compared with its own history since 2010.
| Indicator | Latest | Period | Change | Versus its history |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic growth (real GDP, y/y) | 3.5 % | Q2 2026 | +1.6 pp over 12 months | Normal |
| Output vs capacity (output gap) | 0.3 % | Q2 2026 | +1.0 pp over 12 months | High |
| Monthly economic activity (ISE, y/y) | 1.1 % | Jul 2026 | -3.7 pp over 12 months | Low |
| Unemployment rate | 9.7 % | Aug 2026 | +0.7 pp over 12 months | Normal |
| Inflation, y/y | 6.24 % | Aug 2026 | +1.14 pp over 12 months | High |
| Underlying inflation (ex food & regulated) | 6.12 % | Aug 2026 | +1.30 pp over 12 months | High |
| Market-expected inflation (next year) | 7.23 % | 2 Oct 2026 | +1.18 pp over 3 months | Very high |
| Market-expected inflation (long term) | 6.06 % | 2 Oct 2026 | +0.76 pp over 3 months | High |
| Banco de la República policy rate | 12.25 % | 9 Oct 2026 | +3.00 pp over 12 months | Very high |
| Real interest rate (net of expected inflation) | 4.68 % | 2 Oct 2026 | +0.04 pp over 12 months | High |
| 10-year government bonds (TES) | 13.30 % | 2 Oct 2026 | +1.57 pp over 3 months | Very high |
| US dollar (TRM, pesos per USD) | 3,219 | 9 Oct 2026 | -17.0% over 12 months | Normal |
| Real exchange rate (2010 = 100) | 95.7 | Aug 2026 | -24.0% over 12 months | Very low |
| Colombian stock index (COLCAP) | 2,526 pts | 8 Oct 2026 | +34.7% over 12 months | Very high |
| Current account | -3.5 % GDP | Q2 2026 | -1.1 pp over 12 months | Normal |
| Central government gross debt | 62.9 % GDP | 2025 | +5.0 pp over 12 months | Very high |
03
Official sources
All data are downloaded automatically from official sources (daily series every hour on business days; all sources every night) and pass quality checks before publication.
| Source | Frequency | Latest | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIB real (DANE) | Quarterly | Q2 2026 | Up to date |
| Inflación – IPC (DANE) | Monthly | Aug 2026 | Up to date |
| Tasas de los TES (BanRep) | Daily | 2 Oct 2026 | Up to date |
| Bolsa – COLCAP (BanRep) | Daily | 8 Oct 2026 | Up to date |
| Actividad mensual – ISE (DANE) | Monthly | Jul 2026 | Up to date |
| Desempleo – GEIH (DANE) | Monthly | Aug 2026 | Up to date |
| Informalidad – GEIH (DANE) | Monthly | Jul 2026 | Up to date |
| Tasa de política (BanRep) | Daily | 9 Oct 2026 | Up to date |
| Dólar – TRM (BanRep) | Daily | 9 Oct 2026 | Up to date |
| Inflación básica (BanRep) | Monthly | Sep 2026 | Up to date |
| Tasa de cambio real (BanRep) | Monthly | Aug 2026 | Up to date |
| Cuenta corriente (BanRep) | Quarterly | Q2 2026 | Up to date |
| Deuda del Gobierno (MinHacienda) | Annual | 2025 | Up to date |
| Canasta COLCAP (iShares) | Daily | 7 Oct 2026 | Up to date |
| Acciones del COLCAP (Yahoo Finance) | Weekly | 9 Oct 2026 | Up to date |
| PIB por sectores (DANE) | Quarterly | Q2 2026 | Up to date |
Documents: Methodology (PDF, Spanish) · Reading Codex (PDF, Spanish)
04
Frequently asked questions
How is Colombia's economy doing today?
The economy is growing faster than its usual pace (3.5% over the past year). Inflation (6.2%) is rising and well above the 3% target. Banco de la República's policy rate is 12.25%, a level that aims to curb inflation by making credit more expensive.
Where can I find Colombia's economic indicators?
On Colombia Macro: GDP, inflation, unemployment, interest rates, the peso, TES bonds, external and fiscal accounts and foreign trade in one place, from official DANE and Banco de la República data updated automatically.
Which official sources does Colombia Macro use?
DANE, Banco de la República, the Ministry of Finance, the Financial Superintendence, the Superintendence of Companies and Confecámaras. Every chart shows its source and methodology.