Colombia macroeconomic monitordata as of 9 Oct 2026
The business cycle
Which phase the economy is in, how it got there and where it is heading, quarter by quarter since 2014.
The economy in five measures
- 4 of 5 methods see output above capacity (median +0.3%).
- The monthly indicator (ISE) puts the economy in expansion in Jul 2026.
- But the expansion is narrow: only 4 of 12 sectors produce above trend.
- Government, education and health contributes 1.8 of the 3.9 points added by the 12 sectors in Q2 2026.
?Each cell is a quarter, oldest (left) to latest (right). Hover to see the quarter and its gap.
Where is the economy in its cycle?
- In Q2 2026 the economy is in expansion: it is producing 0.3% above capacity and, over the last two quarters, that gap rose 0.8 points.
- It is the first quarter in this phase.
- Expansion: output above capacity and rising; usually brings price pressure.
?Each dot is a quarter and arrows show the path; the large dot is the selected quarter. Right: output above capacity. Up: that gap is widening. The economy usually turns clockwise: expansion → slowdown → contraction → recovery.
?Each bar is the distance between output and capacity, colored by phase. Hover or click a quarter to place it on the clock. The grey band marks the path shown on the clock.
How sure are we about the phase?
- Five standard methods measure the distance between what the economy produces and its capacity.
- Today they range from -0.5% to +2.3%; the median is +0.3%.
- When methods disagree widely the phase is uncertain and it is worth waiting for the next release.
- The monthly version, built on the ISE, updates 45 days before GDP.
?Each dot is a method. The vertical tick is the median; right of zero the economy produces above capacity. Dots far apart mean an uncertain reading.
?Each bar is a month: how far activity is from trend, coloured by phase. Grey bands: recessions. 2020 is capped at −8% so the scale stays readable.
What is driving the cycle?
- By broad ISE branch, secondary are above trend (+1.8%).
- In Q2 2026 GDP, Government, education and health contributes 1.82 points and Arts, households and other 0.48; Farming and fishing, Information and communications subtract.
- Only 4 of 12 sectors produce above trend.
?Primary: farming and mining. Secondary: manufacturing, construction and utilities. Tertiary: trade, services and government. Blue: above trend; orange: below.
?Each bar is the percentage points the sector adds to (or subtracts from) annual GDP growth. They add up to total growth.
?Green: the sector produces above its own trend; orange: below. More than 6 green means a broad-based expansion.
How strong and how long is this expansion?
- Activity is growing +1.1% year on year and at an annualised +5.8% over the last three months: the recent pace exceeds the annual one (accelerating).
- The current expansion began in May 2020 and is 74 months old; activity is up +42.3% since the trough.
?Blue: growth versus the same month a year earlier. Orange: last 3 months versus the previous 3, annualised. Orange above blue means acceleration.
| Phase | From | To | Months | ISE change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expansion | May 2020 | ongoing | 74 | +42.3% |
| Recession | Jan 2020 | May 2020 | 4 | -18.0% |
| Expansion | Apr 2017 | Jan 2020 | 33 | +8.3% |
| Recession | Sep 2016 | Apr 2017 | 7 | -0.6% |
| Expansion | Dec 2008 | Sep 2016 | 93 | +38.5% |
| Recession | Sep 2008 | Dec 2008 | 3 | -2.1% |
?Peak and trough dates of the ISE level (3-month average), using the Bry-Boschan rule. Recessions shade the site's charts.
How does the cycle show up in jobs?
- Over 12 months the unemployment rate changed -0.2 pp and the employment rate +0.2 pp.
- Under Okun's law, each point of output gap lowers unemployment by only 0.12 pp (correlation -0.26): in Colombia jobs respond little to the cycle because informality absorbs shocks.
?Percentage points versus the same month a year earlier (3-month average). An improving labour market shows employment up and unemployment down.
?Blue: output gap (%). Green: how far unemployment is below its trend (pp, inverted so both rise together). When output is above capacity, unemployment should fall below trend.
Frequently asked questions
Which phase of the business cycle is Colombia in?
4 of 5 methods see output above capacity (median +0.3%). The monthly indicator (ISE) puts the economy in expansion in Jul 2026.
What is the output gap?
The percentage difference between what the economy produces (GDP) and its capacity or potential GDP. Positive means output above capacity; negative means slack.
What are the phases of the business cycle?
Expansion (positive and rising gap), slowdown (positive and falling), contraction (negative and falling) and recovery (negative and rising), following the OECD business cycle clock.